What is the normal variation of Lose to Gains in large Patreons?

[thorondraco]

First of the month and, as can be expected, some people have dropped off from the Homestuck patreon. Motivations for such a thing are varied of course. Changes in financial stuff, simply not being interested anymore, etc.

In this case, at the time of writing this, about twenty to thirty people have dropped off. Leaving the current number at 1639. Thing is i do not know if that is a normal amount or not. For 1600 it seems relatively normal, if a bit disappointing that it will take longer for it to increase reach that 2000 goal.

But I also know there is a rather negative aspect of the fandom rearing its head atm. Literally on the reddit there is a post that kinda vilifies the idea of, well, supporting Homestuck^2. It tries to frame itself as a discussion when it really isn't. It basically takes everything that has been said about Homestuck^2, the whole canon meta-narrative story elements you see in homestuck, as literal. And that because the Whatpumpkin team doesn't themselves take it literally means it shouldn't be supported?
Uses terms like 'holding an ip ransom' like its fucking Disney or something.
Add onto that somewhat thinly veiled attacks on the Whatpumpkin team in general. And separating that team from Hussie, as if Hussie isn't part of the project still even if he himself is not writing the text.

I am kinda worried that stuff like that might be negatively affecting the patreon. Its okay if you don't like the direction and are like 'eh too slow for me i will see in a few months' and such. Not when you have guys possibly being convinced to not support it or stop supporting it. Some guy sees it and gets completely mislead that it was supposed to be something it never was going to be.

so is this normal or are peeps making a smeer campaign against HS^2 and succeeding?


Edit:
Okay i will admit that i might be blaming the naysayers too much here. And i don't know if it decreased by an amount last month either. Guess i am just worried here.

[Dream Muttman]

The canon rhetoric the posts on reddit are based on are based on Hussie's commentary on the epilogues, transcribed here:

Spoiler

Show

It isn't based on the views espoused by fictional characters.

[thorondraco]

The canon rhetoric the posts on reddit are based on are based on Hussie's commentary on the epilogues, transcribed here:

Spoiler

Show

It isn't based on the views espoused by fictional characters.

Oh my god he was hinting at Homestuck^2 there wasn't he? O.o

What people keep on forgetting is that Hussie always has ranting twisting dialogues full of pretentious prose and ridiculous statements, but he is often trying to hide information within the wall of text that is the actual point of what he is writing.

In this case all this talk about fans taking control and that ending statement about the most invested fans being the direction he goes? That is him talking about the whatpumpkin team and them having a lot of creative control with Homestuck^2. A bunch of fanfic writers he has brought on to help him make more homestuck stuff. Its even just three months ago and i think Aysha mentioned that it was only a couple of months ago that they got things moving on the project.

Motherfucker! God damn it HUSSIE!!!!

Also you statement doesn't explain if the drop is normal or not and is just trying to justify the idea it wasn't metaphor.

[nonsenseMnemonic]

I'm not sure, numbers-wise, what the normal Patreon drop-off rate is, but I would imagine a Patreon's first few months are pretty up-and-down, since you'll have a lot of subscriptions from people who got swept up in the hype and might not want to contribute long-term. 20-30 doesn't sound all that unreasonable to me, considering the size of the patreon. I'm just speculating tho

[thorondraco]

I'm not sure, numbers-wise, what the normal Patreon drop-off rate is, but I would imagine a Patreon's first few months are pretty up-and-down, since you'll have a lot of subscriptions from people who got swept up in the hype and might not want to contribute long-term. 20-30 doesn't sound all that unreasonable to me, considering the size of the patreon. I'm just speculating tho

Fair enough. I guess i am just paranoid. I imagine we could get more when things speed up. Or less if there is less direction and they kinda derail. I don't think it would be a lack of talent or a lack of Hussie but a lack of communication between themselves that could lead to an issue.
But a paranoid part of me worries it could get derailed by very upset peeps too. Before anyhting happens to make them legitimately upset.

Also the guy who posted before you linked something Makin posted on the reddit a few months back. I saw it then and i think it was actually secretly advertising Homestuck^2 now. Especially what he says at the end and how Aysha and others described the creative control they have.
That would explain so much.

[thorondraco]

I'm not sure, numbers-wise, what the normal Patreon drop-off rate is, but I would imagine a Patreon's first few months are pretty up-and-down, since you'll have a lot of subscriptions from people who got swept up in the hype and might not want to contribute long-term. 20-30 doesn't sound all that unreasonable to me, considering the size of the patreon. I'm just speculating tho

And its dipped even more. By this trend they will be back in the 1500s before the day is over. Hopefully it stops dipping from there. So that would mean roughly 60 patrons gone, near to 70. Which sucks cause there was some good upticks too, meaning they would be at 1700 by now.

But as you said it will dip up and down over the months. But it is a bit worrying. Like what if it just keeps going down throughout the month?

[nonsenseMnemonic]

What if? I guess if that happens they'll just have to produce updates with 1500 patrons instead of 1700. Without knowing the details of their budgeting and spending, I'm not sure how much there is to speculate on how the loss of a hundred or so patrons will affect WP employees or new content.

[thorondraco]

What if? I guess if that happens they'll just have to produce updates with 1500 patrons instead of 1700. Without knowing the details of their budgeting and spending, I'm not sure how much there is to speculate on how the loss of a hundred or so patrons will affect WP employees or new content.

having 1300 was enough incentive to basically give everyone a raise. And yea there question is what is the amount that the people who are leaving the patreon gave to begin with.

Think a way to look at it is that they are paying people to make the sequel stuff. Meaning if they make mons from the patreons, they can pay the sequel peeps that money and not have to divert funds from other projects. They may or may not have an overflow of it yet so they might already be giving peeps more money. Especially as they seem to focus on having a patron number over a money amount. Think it was more to not pressure people into selecting the higher tiers.

If they were all 2 dollar guys they would be losing about 120 dollars. If they were all 5 dollar guys, then its more 300 dollars. 2 to 5 dollars are probably the most common amount given. Course if it happens to be all their 20 dollar guys then its like 1200 dollars and that is worrying. But hopefully its the 2 to 5 dollar range rather than something like that. Thinking people going in for the 20 might stick around more. Or maybe more likely to leave if it doesn't fit their tastes? Dunno.

It does make it that it will be a longer time before we can get double updates. If we get to those then things probably will keep growing from there. Short of the story being bad but i don't think we should worry tooo much in that regard so far.

And short of this trend continuing to the point were i am the only patron left on it >_< Unrealistic worry of course but still.

[Drinosi]

I guess it is to be expected to lose some along the way. Some people were hyped at the beginning and may feel like they're not getting enough, others may have financial difficulty.
But, that's actually not a ton to lose, because the first few months is when the most will be lost. The fact that so many are still there for December means they're probably not going anywhere. I've been in business for a long time and if you can keep people for the first few months, trends show that they're gonna stick around unless something either seriously pisses them off, or they suffer a financial problem. Growth may be slower now, but the ones that do join now have a pretty good chance of sticking around because they're joining after the first few updates, so they must see something they like enough to give their money to.
When I heard about it, I chose an amount that I could live with shelling out over a long period of time, that way I wouldn't have to lower or cancel how much I give. That's an important factor too, because sometimes people get over eager and try to go for too high of an amount that they can't keep up with for the long haul.
I do think that we will see a steady increase of patreons and as time goes on, the loss will be less and less until it remains fairly balanced.

**My expertise in the subject is 2 degrees in that field and a successful business that has shown significant growth over an 8 year period.**

[thorondraco]

I guess it is to be expected to lose some along the way. Some people were hyped at the beginning and may feel like they're not getting enough, others may have financial difficulty.
But, that's actually not a ton to lose, because the first few months is when the most will be lost. The fact that so many are still there for December means they're probably not going anywhere. I've been in business for a long time and if you can keep people for the first few months, trends show that they're gonna stick around unless something either seriously pisses them off, or they suffer a financial problem. Growth may be slower now, but the ones that do join now have a pretty good chance of sticking around because they're joining after the first few updates, so they must see something they like enough to give their money to.
When I heard about it, I chose an amount that I could live with shelling out over a long period of time, that way I wouldn't have to lower or cancel how much I give. That's an important factor too, because sometimes people get over eager and try to go for too high of an amount that they can't keep up with for the long haul.
I do think that we will see a steady increase of patreons and as time goes on, the loss will be less and less until it remains fairly balanced.

**My expertise in the subject is 2 degrees in that field and a successful business that has shown significant growth over an 8 year period.**

I recently looked at the patreon and its now at 1688 after that rather big dig. WEird.

[nonsenseMnemonic]

There is always a bigger loss at the beginning of the month, and then a gradual increase throughout the rest of it. I'll probably end up pledging at some point once I've got a paycheck coming in.

[thorondraco]

There is always a bigger loss at the beginning of the month, and then a gradual increase throughout the rest of it. I'll probably end up pledging at some point once I've got a paycheck coming in.

And now we are sitting at 1721. Fuck with any luck we could be sitting at 2000 by the end of the month and get double updates by Febuary.

[MorganMustDie]

And now we are sitting at 1721. Fuck with any luck we could be sitting at 2000 by the end of the month and get double updates by Febuary.

damnit man you jinx'd it
we're gonna hit 2000 and they're gonna say "sorry February is too short we can't fit two updates in"

[thorondraco]

And now we are sitting at 1721. Fuck with any luck we could be sitting at 2000 by the end of the month and get double updates by Febuary.

damnit man you jinx'd it
we're gonna hit 2000 and they're gonna say "sorry February is too short we can't fit two updates in"

Wouldn't be me who jinxed it XD